Author Anil Selarka evaluates the aftermath of Japan tragedy of quake and tsunami. He deliberates on the options open to Japanese government and where it commits serious errors. He says that the best option open to Japan was to sell its dollar reserve and buy yen instead of just printing more and more yen which will cause most serious inflation. With Japanese government throwing almost 25 Trillion yen into the money market (equivalent to $ 300 billions), he says that this money will be up in smoke in just two days. The need of the hour for Japanese government is to indulge into tangible assets growth and its management, not paper trading like money market operations. He says that Yen contrary to all expectation will rise to 60 from 82 level against US dollar. With Japan possibly remaining absent at future treasury auctions in United States, the possibility of higher rates in USA is written all over it. If dollar weakens due to Japanese selling, Chinese the largest holder of US treasury are not going to keep quiet. They too will join Japan which may escalate the currency crisis. The author has written previous article “Enter the Second Stage of Financial Crisis” only a few weeks ago, which may become reality soon due to these unexpected events. The nature is supreme – the author says. One can not continue to suppress truth for a long time. Japanese were doing it for over 16 years, and it finally exploded with natural calamity. Read the article for major effects and economic fall out from Japan quake and following tsunami. The author has also penned a remarkable book “Sub Prime Resolved” which is perhaps the only book that provided total solution to the economic crisis faced by the United States and the world.
Author warns of impending second financial crisis which may be triggered by Silver and gold which have been shorted by major money center banks in United States and some more in UK, Europe and Switzerland. The second stage of financial crisis will be painful one because it is going to negate the hopes of recovery and GDP growth. Read the full article.
Anil Selarka, author of Sub Prime Resolved, writes Part -8 of How to Invest into anything series under the title – Convertible Bonds. In this comprehensive essay, he explains the complexity of this hybrid instrument in very easy style and language a common investor would understand. At the end of this article, he even introduces a new concept – a simple QUIZ to determine how much the reader understood the article. He also appends Answer Sheet with comprehensive explanation to each answer with reference to the article.
There is every possibility that next week beginning from 24-Jan-2010 may see sharp plunge in the stocks and bond prices on the back of 5% plunge in Wall Street last week, notably over 200 points loss on Friday. The stocks were defying correction in spite of all negative data feeding through the market for over several months. The President Obama’s plan for banking overhaul has ignited this correction. Not that the President is wrong, but his presentation and timing is a bit off. One can not afford to make market rattling bland statements without making available enough details to let policy views known. Billions of dollars could be lost as result. The Author’s prediction in December that the correction may start in third week of January and take almost 80% money out of the market on or before 21 Jan 2010 came out bang on target. In this article, the author forewarns the crash and also provide tools to help the investors. Read more….
The Author of brilliant book “Sub Prime Resolved” forecasts the looming banking crisis, several times larger than the last year, when almost all banks will come under severe squeeze due to interest rate rise. Almost all banks have granted 30 years Fixed Rate Mortgage to the borrowers while borrowing short term from Fed and Interbank market at near zero interest rate. The long term assets should be financed by long term liabilities, but the banks and mortgage lenders in United States have done otherwise. Trillions of dollars would be lost, several banks could go bust and the present financial crisis will deteriorate into major crisis in USA. The derivative markets too will have huge losses. Blood, blood, blood everywhere. The Author has offered solution to the US government in the form of book ” SUB PRIME RESOLVED” and also wrote to President Obama in recent past, offering him total solution. He went on to the extent that if he could not pull USA out of recession in 9 months, President Obama could sign “Death Warrant” against him with his and his family’s written consent. However, President Obama has no time to even deliberate with the Author. He bothers more about Health Care reform when the biggest banking crisis is simmering right below his Presidential Chair in the White House… Read more
The Author critically evaluates latest myth surrounding the US government’s guarantee of $306 billions issued to Citigroup and cash funding of $ 45 billions under TARP. The Citigroup CEO Mr. Pandit’s statement that the Citigroup was having the best quarter since 2007 was an act of deceiving the Senators, President Obama and American Tax Payers. According to Author, a clever game of creative accounting was played out at the highest level. Instead of making Citigroup absorb the losses in its own book, the creative genius were at work to ensure that the Citi was spared and the nation (USA) was obviously destroyed. How as it achieved – Read the full article.
No one questions Warren Buffet. He is next only to Lord Jesus that the people begin to believe. However, he too is not infallible. He is human and makes mistakes. The wuthor critically examines how venerable Warren Buffet was taken for a ride by a few opportunists in the Fed and Treasury, and how did he compromise on the security aspects of his massive $ 8 billion of investment in Goldman Sachs and General Electric. The edge is cathing on Mr. Buffet. He is 78 and want to see the return in short term before he gets the final call. In this anxiety, he has begun to make a few mistakes. They are costly ones. Read more…..
The Author tried to address the hypes on one of India’s most premium business house – Reliance Induustries Ltd, and its presently promoted Reliance Petroleum Ltd. (RPL) a massive green refinery, ranked 6th largest in the world. The refinery, in which Chevron holds 5% stake, comes on production stream in December 08 (now delayed to Jan 09). The stock price of this unborne child went on as high as 259. Currently trading at Rs 82, the author argues that the stock of this prized company could drop to 30 to 60 level due to host of factors, including hitherto unknown Rs 77oo crores of derivatives outstanding (US$ 1.6 billions). Too many shares – 4.5 billions are too much to digest in the market, although 70% is owned by its parent RIL – first ever Fortune 500 Indian company.
The author evaluates possible reasons for Islamic Banks’ avoidance of derivatives that saved them. Islam prohibits the living one’s life on earnings from Interest of any source. What is the significance and how this stricture of Islam saved the Islamic Banks from global routes